This year presents challenging conditions for many of the sectors of the Colombian economy, including the logistics and international trade sector that is responsible for the movement of products and merchandise that Colombia imports and exports and which currently has issues that may impact the performance during 2024.
This article is aimed at professionals in foreign trade and logistics, so that they can follow up and activate action plans that allow them to reduce the risks in global and local market situations, relying on our advice to find solutions to maintain the logistics of their business. company efficiently.
Colombia would face possible energy rationing:
The El Niño phenomenon and the low level of reservoirs has generated a decrease in hydroelectric energy production in Colombia , which has reached just 42% of the historical average for the month of April. Given the situation, the Ministry of Mines and Energy took a drastic measure to address the energy deficit and was to order that the country's thermoelectric plants operate at their maximum capacity (we must take into account that 70% of the energy in Colombia is generated by hydroelectric plants). .
The energy crisis situation has led to possible energy rationing; which would affect the country's productive capacity and could further impact the gross domestic products expected for 2024. The possible reduction in productivity would have collateral effects on exports; because companies may have difficulty fulfilling their international orders. The issue of low productivity could force Colombian companies to increase their imports of goods and services if they cannot produce enough to meet demand at the national level.
It is important to keep in mind that these are just some of the possible consequences of energy rationing in Colombia. The actual impact will depend on the severity of the rationing, its duration, and the measures taken to mitigate its effects.rationing, its duration, and the measures taken to mitigate its effects.
The country's logistics could be affected, not only by a possible decrease in the cargo moved by companies, but also by the increase in fuel that could affect the rates of land transportation of cargo, the main means of mobilizing cargo in Colombia. , but to the costs associated with energy consumption such as operations in warehouses and warehouses, ports, airports, which due to shortages could increase rates.
The entities in charge of managing Colombia's energy resources have analyzed various future scenarios, and the results show that the country could face an electrical energy deficit, initially in 2027 and later in 2035, depending on how much they are implemented. the projects.
Escalation of geopolitical situations and their impact on the operation of international trade.
Uncertainty has taken over the Middle East, the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas has a volatile component such as Iran's intervention that could trigger a conflict with greater impact on international trade, the Middle East region is an important oil producer and natural gas. An increase in tension in the region could cause an interruption in the supply of these resources, which would lead to an increase in their prices globally, affecting a large part of the means of transportation used in the global supply chain.
“The conflict has not yet directly affected production,” although traders already fear that a more developed conflict could disrupt shipments of both oil and containers in the transportation sector. In addition to the bombings and economic uncertainty, trade concern is centered on the MSC ship, the main cargo ship on the planet. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has already captured the container ship MSC Aries, which accounts for 25% of European traffic. This problem could have a direct impact on the prices of the textile sector, raw materials, pharmaceuticals and other products that consumers use. Referenced by Javier Ruiz, journalist from SER chain
Image created by Bing AI
The sea routes through the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf are important for international trade. An escalation of the conflict could result in the closure of these routes, forcing ships carrying Colombian products to take alternative routes, increasing transportation costs and delivery times. On the other hand, temporary congestion in ports in Brazil and the reduced transit of ships through the Panama Canal are issues that should be on the radar of professionals in logistics and foreign trade.
The recommendation from Roldán Logistics for logistics and foreign trade professionals is to closely monitor the international situation and be prepared to take measures to mitigate the possible impacts of international conflicts on their economy.
Low demand from the main sectors of Colombia
A situation that has external and internal factors and that is an element that generates a contraction in consumption and therefore in the movement of the commercial and productive apparatus.
We present some impact topics that can be generated in the logistics sector.
Reduction in cargo volume: Low demand in the Colombian economy translates into lower production and consumption of goods, which implies a decrease in the volume of cargo transported. According to the Colombian Logistics Association (ACC), a 5% drop in the volume of cargo moved is estimated during 2024.
Optimize storage processes: Analyze the movement of inventories to optimize the purchase of merchandise based on supply and demand. Have an ally who analyzes warehouse logistics processes to propose cost-effective solutions that mitigate the effect of low demand, but that allow for a level of response to a recovery in the consumption capacity of Colombians.
ecommerce has better prospects: The rise of e-commerce will continue to drive the growth of last mile distribution, although at a slower pace. Companies should focus on improving inventory and distribution efficiency related to customer experience in this segment.
These are three situations, low demand and slow growth of the Colombian market represent a challenge for the logistics sector. However, they also present opportunities for companies that adapt to new trends, invest in innovation and improve their efficiency. Collaboration between public and private actors will be essential to overcome challenges and strengthen the competitiveness of the logistics sector in the country.
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